A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
